Our client is one of the largest fast-moving consumer goods company (FMCG)  which manufactures +135 SKUs and has more than +1000 distributors.

The objective is to equip client with smart trade promotion planning and sales forecasting tool built on predictive analytics


TransOrg Analytics developed Trade Promotion Optimization to:

  • Evaluate promotion effectiveness of trade promotions (both primary and secondary)
  • Data diagnostics, statistical modeling, end-user what-if simulation dashboard

Stage 1: Estimate baseline demand and total promotional uplift by SKU

Multiplicative state space modelling

Model estimates baseline and total promotional uplift

Model tests for the following factors :

  • Retail Price Elasticity (requires retail price data)
  • Seasonality
  • Cannibalisation
  • Promotional Dips
  • Promotional Factors (Control variables for Flyer type & Mechanic)

Stage 2: Decompose promotion uplift into factor contributions by product group

Uplift by product group, flyer type & promotion mechanic

Panel models by product group & DC

Bayesian shrinkage to decompose promotional uplift into contribution based on factors


  • Model decomposes Base Demand Volume & Promotional Demand Volume Uplift
  • Library detailing the past promotions.
  • Clear insights on past performance and future course of action
  • “What-if” simulation tool for predictive planning and selling
Want to learn more about TransOrg’s value proposition, solution methodology and implementation approach?